New box office projections for Black Panther suggest the film will open even bigger than Spider-Man: Homecoming. The wait to see a Black Panther solo movie is almost over, and anticipation continues to rise. Chadwick Boseman made a memorable onscreen debut as T’Challa in Captain America: Civil War, often stealing scenes, and leaving viewers wanting more. They will get that chance in just over a month once the Ryan Coogler directed flick hits theaters.
A Black Panther movie was on the top of many wish lists prior to Marvel Studios announcing their intent to make it in 2014. The prospects of the film were tantalizing enough, but the talent assembled is truly extraordinary. Bolstering the name recognition of the cast, crew, and the Marvel brand have been excellent trailers. Many expected Black Panther to perform well at the box office, and the latest projections indicate it easily should.
Box Office Pro updated their projections for Black Panther today and now predict it to open to $120 million domestically. This marks a $30 million increase from their initial $90M estimates. The boost comes one month before the movie debuts, and a few weeks before actual box office tracking is made available. It also follows tickets going on sale, and the high interest Black Panther quickly generated.
If Black Panther does open to $120 million next month, it will be the Marvel Cinematic Universe’s best franchise launch ever. That crown currently belongs to Spider-Man: Homecoming‘s $117M opening last year, so this would be a narrow win. That said, the general public is well-aware of Spider-Man, making his big launch less of a surprise. Black Panther on the other hand isn’t that well-known just yet, but a launch of this size would help close the gap.
Not only is Black Panther projected to do well in its opening weekend, but the overall domestic haul is great too. Box Office Pro estimates a $335M total will come Black Panther‘s way based on an opening of this size. Such a total would be good for the sixth best domestic total in MCU history. Black Panther will need strong legs to perform this well domestically, and it has a good shot to do so if the film is as great as many expect. There are hardly any major releases coming in the few weeks that follow its launch. There will be some smaller films that will play as competition, but nothing should come close to really challenging Black Panther in the first couple weeks.
That said, these projections are likely based on the positive buzz the movie continues to receive. If the critical reaction isn’t glowing, Black Panther could lose some steam at the box office and with tracking. Those reactions shouldn’t be that much further away now. On the flip side, if reactions are even better than anticipated, these projections could go even higher – making it more difficult for anyone (even Lupita Nyong’o) to get tickets.
KEY RELEASE DATES
Black Panther release date: Feb 16, 2018
Avengers: Infinity War / The Avengers 3 release date: May 4, 2018
Ant-Man & The Wasp release date: Jul 6, 2018
Captain Marvel release date: Mar 8, 2019
The Avengers 4 / Untitled Avengers Movie release date: May 3, 2019
Untitled Spider-Man: Homecoming Sequel release date: Jul 5, 2019